Navigating the Global Challenge of Population Decline, Aging, and Gender Implications within the G20

[RITESH LADDHA]

Introduction

The world is currently witnessing a profound demographic transformation, with consequences that resonate across numerous facets of society. Within the G20, developed nations have grappled with declining fertility rates for an extended period, a trend showing no signs of reversal. This issue extends beyond the confines of a single country. Still, it significantly impacts economic productivity, healthcare systems, and social security programs. Meanwhile, other G20 nations are dealing with the contrasting issue of an expanding working-age population but must also prepare for a surge in elderly-dependent citizens.

 

Developing G20 nations have recently achieved or are on the verge of attaining replacement-level fertility rates, which bode well for their workforce but introduce a new challenge of addressing an ageing population. Outside the G20, developing nations face their unique set of challenges concerning youth populations and the imperative to invest in education, healthcare, and job opportunities.

 

In this dynamic demographic landscape, gender plays a pivotal role in shaping the challenges and outcomes that countries encounter. This article explores the implications of these demographic shifts through a gendered lens and outlines strategies for addressing them.

 

Demographic Shifts Within the G20

• Developed G20 Nations (Aging Population and Declining Fertility): Developed G20 countries are grappling with declining fertility rates, leading to a substantial dependent population comprising individuals aged 0-14 and 60+. This burden on the elderly population places strain on healthcare systems, social security programs, and economic productivity.
  • With the exception of France, all G20 developed countries have a Total Fertility Rate (TFR) below the sustainable level of 1.7-1.8 as of 2023. Countries like Korea, Japan, and Italy are particularly affected, with TFR ranging between 0.88 and 1.3. This decline in fertility has led to a substantial dependent population, consisting of individuals aged 0-14 and 60+, which accounts for approximately 43% of the population in these countries.
  • Of particular concern is the burden of the elderly population (aged 60+), which is increasing in developed countries. Currently, this burden ranges from 23% in Australia to 36% in Japan. This aging population places significant strain on healthcare systems, social security programs, and overall economic productivity. It is a challenge that demands immediate attention and innovative solutions.
• G20 Nations with Peaking Working-Age Population: Countries like Brazil and China have achieved low fertility rates in the past, resulting in a significant working-age population (64%). However, they also face the challenge of an increasing elderly-dependent population, which requires careful planning.
• Developing G20 Nations (Achieving Replacement-Level Fertility): Developing G20 countries, including Argentina, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and Turkey, have recently achieved, or are approaching replacement-level fertility, which bode well for their workforce but introduced a new challenge of addressing an ageing population. This demographic transition necessitates effective planning and policy interventions to ensure sustainable development and social welfare.

 

Demographic Challenges Beyond the G20

Beyond the G20, developing countries with higher fertility rates (in the range of 3-6) face different challenges. Countries like Niger, Angola, Nigeria, Papua New Guinea, Congo, Tajikistan, and Pakistan, characterized by substantial youth populations, must invest in education, healthcare, and job creation to harness their potential effectively. These countries are poised to experience significant growth in their working-age population in the coming years.

 

Gender Implications in Demographic Shifts

In this evolving demographic context, gender plays a crucial role in shaping outcomes and challenges:

• Labour Force Dynamics: Women are often disproportionately affected by ageing populations due to their traditional roles as caregivers. As the demand for elderly care increases, women can face difficulties balancing caregiving responsibilities with participation in the labour force, hindering their career advancement and economic empowerment.
• Economic Security: The ageing population can impact women's economic security, especially as they tend to outlive men. Gender disparities in labour force participation can leave older women financially vulnerable. Policies must address these discrepancies to ensure women's financial well-being in old age.
• Fertility Choices and Work-Life Balance: In countries with declining fertility rates, policies that support work-life balance, affordable childcare, and parental leave are crucial for enabling women to make choices about family planning and career advancement that align with their aspirations.
• Education and Employment Opportunities: Developing countries with expanding working-age populations need to invest in women's education and employment opportunities. Empowering women in the workforce not only contributes to economic growth but also influences fertility choices and family dynamics.

 

Policy recommendation to address the challenges of population decline, ageing, and gender implications:

• Invest in Education and Healthcare: Developing countries with expanding working-age populations should prioritize investments in education and healthcare. Ensuring access to quality education and healthcare, particularly for girls and women, can lead to better employment opportunities and healthier populations, which in turn can impact fertility rates positively.
• Promote Gender Equality in the Workforce: Implement and enforce policies that promote gender equality in the workplace, including equal pay for equal work and anti-discrimination measures. Encourage more women to enter and remain in the labour force, which can help offset the economic burden of an ageing population.
• Elderly Care Support: Develop policies and programs to support elderly care, with a particular focus on recognizing and alleviating the burden on women who often shoulder caregiving responsibilities. This might include subsidies for caregivers, respite care services, and initiatives to engage men in caregiving roles.
• Healthcare System Reforms: Reevaluate and reform healthcare systems to address the specific needs of an ageing population, including preventative care, long-term care options, and accessible healthcare services for the elderly.
• Encourage Active Aging: Develop policies that promote active ageing, including opportunities for older individuals to remain engaged in the workforce, volunteer work, and community activities. This can contribute to their economic security and overall well-being.
• International Collaboration: Foster international collaboration and knowledge-sharing among G20 countries and with other nations facing similar demographic challenges. Exchange best practices and strategies to address population ageing and declining fertility rates effectively.
• Youth Empowerment: In countries with substantial youth populations, invest in programs that empower young people through education, skills development, and job creation. Harness the demographic dividend by ensuring that the youth are productive members of society.
• Data Collection and Analysis: Continuously collect and analyze demographic data, with a particular focus on gender-disaggregated data. This will help policymakers make informed decisions and monitor the impact of policies over time.

 

Conclusion

Addressing the global challenge of population decline, ageing, and its gender implications requires comprehensive strategies. Governments and international organizations must adopt gender-sensitive policies that empower women, promote equality, and recognize the diverse roles that women play in different demographic contexts. By doing so, we can work towards a future where every nation harnesses its demographic dividend while ensuring the well-being and empowerment of all its people. Failure to do so could lead to long-lasting social, economic, and political consequences affecting generations to come.

 

Source:

• Demographic: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2022). World Population Prospects 2022, Online Edition