Methodology for assessing whether countries would reach SDG indicators by 2030

[Ranjani K.Murthy]

In the blog below cross posted I have outlined a methodology which goes beyond tracking to assess whether countries would reach SDG indicators given the rate of progress and what the government is and proposes to do.  Would like your comments, as well as sharing of other methodologies. 

Author: Ranjani K. Murthy, October 4 2019 - This blog provides a six-step methodology to assess whether countries, sub-regions, and sub-groups will reach the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) - 232 indicators, 169 targets, and 17 goals - by 2030.

• Step 1: Access data from the SDG Tracker webpage on what your country has achieved for each of the indicator for which data is available, making use of latest available data. On a few indicators, data is not available for any country (e.g., indicator 5.2.2 which is on violence against women other than intimate partner), and on some indicators, data is not available for a particular country.
• Step 2: If data is not available in the webpage https://sdg-tracker.org/ on an indicator for your country, access data on a proxy indicator from other sources. For example, reported incidence of sexual violence in public spaces with women's helplines per 100,000 women could be a proxy indicator of violence in public spaces against women and girls, till such surveys are carried out.
• Step 3: Analyse trend data for the country across each country, and calculate average rate of progress per year on that indicator. Examine whether, if the same trend continues, the SDG indicator would be achieved by 2030. Rate your response in three categories: Yes, maybe, unlikely. The rating of "yes" is to be used when the country will definitely be on track at the present rate of progress or is already on track. "Maybe" could be used if it is likely to be off track by 25% or less, making it possible for an unanticipated acceleration to bring the country on track. "Unlikely" could be used when the country is off track by more than 25%.
• Step 4: Examine government reporting of progress in the Voluntary National Review, and see if they are honest enough to admit the gaps and have a sound strategy to bridge them. See if your rating in step 3 needs to change. These Voluntary National Review reports can be accessed from https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/vnrs/
• Step 5: Examine if different groups based on race, caste, class, gender, disability, region, religion, gender identity, etc. are making the same progress as the national level average, using data to the extent available. Demographic health surveys, for example, provide disaggregated data on health across class, location, age, ethnicity, religion, caste, etc. Assess who is ahead, who is behind, and why. Examine if the government's National SDG Framework addresses the specific hurdles faced by the groups lagging behind.
• Step 6: Review the government's national SDG framework, which outlines, amongst other things, how the government plans to integrate SDGs in different policies, programmes and schemes, and assess progress. See if the measures proposed by the particular government are adequate to ensure that the country and different sub-groups will be on track (if not already), and reassess your rating on whether the country will achieve progress: Yes, Maybe, Unlikely.

To sum up, it is important to go beyond tracking progress on SDGs (https://sdg-tracker.org/) to assessing whether the rate of progress and any new measures proposed by government is enough to achieve SDG indicator(s) by 2030. Otherwise, tracking may not aid achievement of SDGs.

HAPPY ASSESSMENT!

References Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers' Welfare, 2015, All India Report on Agriculture Census 2000-2001, Agriculture Census Division, Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers' Welfare, New Delhi.
Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers' Welfare, 2015, All India Report on Agriculture Census 2010-2011 [PDF], Agriculture Census Division, Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers' Welfare, New Delhi.
Food and Agricultural Organization, 2019, Gender and Land Rights database.
Government of India, 2017, Voluntary National Review Report: India on the Implementation of Sustainable Development Goals, UN HLPF 2017, New York.
Government of India and the United Nations, 2017, Sustainable Development Framework, 2018–2022, Government of India, New Delhi.
United Nations, 2018, Measuring progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals.

Image credit: SDG Tracker via Twitter

Cross posted from https://www.comminit.com/global/content/beyond-sdg-tracking-towards...

Ranjani.K.Murthy 

[Rituu B Nanda]

Thanks Ranjini for this brilliant analysis. I have used and cited your work in my SDGs report to my university.